Why Tarrifs Might Not Actually Happen on Tuesday

I'm calling b******* on Trump's supposed tariffs that he's going to implement on Tuesday. Something about it has always seemed fishy to me and below is my analysis of why it probably won't occur on Tuesday.

• The Oddity of Tuesday Implementation: I find it strange that the tariffs are set to take effect on a Tuesday, not immediately. This delay creates an "optionality" for Trump, leaving room for other events to occur. If Trump is serious about imposing tariffs, then it would make sense to do it immediately, however, the delay to Tuesday doesn't allow enough time for the economy to find alternative sources of supply. Here are some possible reasons:

  • Market Reaction: The delay allows Trump to observe the market's reaction on Monday. If the markets react very negatively then maybe Trump would want a way out.
  • Judge Intervention: The delay may allow a judge to step in and block the tariffs, giving Trump a way to say he did what he promised but was stopped by the "deep state." This way, Trump can fulfill his promise and blame someone else for not being able to fully carry it out.
    • Covering Short Positions: Trump might need Monday to allow a fund to cover a short position, which would be a bet that the market would go down. After this happens, he or a fund associated with him could then buy up those same positions after the market dip.
  • Delay and Control: If Trump was serious about the tariffs, they would have been implemented immediately. The delay is indicative of a desire to have more control over the narrative and potentially profit from the volatility created by the tariffs.

• Why Not Act Immediately? If Trump truly believed in the efficacy or necessity of the tariffs, he would have implemented them right away, maybe even on Sunday or Monday morning. If he were concerned about a judge blocking the tariffs, his style would be to put them in place immediately and then let the judge try to overturn them. The fact that he's waiting until Tuesday is "telling" and suggests that there is something else going on.

• The Petty Argument: Trump may be motivated by a dislike for the left-leaning governments of Canada and Mexico, which could be a reason for the higher tariff rates applied to them, compared to China. Kind of like "sticking it to the libs". There is a nationalistic argument for the tariffs, but the higher rates on Canada and Mexico don't make sense.

• Market Manipulation: Trump is creating the volatility that he can profit from, and since he pretty much owns the justice department and the SEC, they won't investigate.

• A Bloodbath on Monday: A "bloodbath" in the markets on Monday opens and an even bigger one on Tuesday when the tariffs are supposed to go into effect. The market's reaction may cause Trump to look for a way out of the tariffs.

TLDR: In essence, Trump's actions, particularly the delay in implementing the tariffs until Tuesday, are not about standard policy or even national interest. Rather, they might be part of a larger scheme for personal gain, political maneuvering, and a way to solidify his power.